Geopolitical developments between India and Pakistan, quarterly earnings and macro data will be the key drivers of stock markets in the holiday-shortened week, say analysts.
Foreign investors made a significant turnaround and injected over Rs 1,500 crore into Indian equities in February, reversing the massive outflows seen in the preceding month, primarily due to robust corporate earnings and positive economic growth. Additionally, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued to be bullish on the debt markets as they put in over Rs 22,419 crore during the month under review, data with the depositories showed. Looking ahead to March, the outlook for FPI flow appears promising, provided the current economic trajectory and corporate performance sustain their positive momentum, potentially continuing to attract foreign investment into Indian equities, Mayank Mehraa, smallcase manager and principal partner at Craving Alpha, said.
From the 30 Sensex companies, Zomato, Tata Motors, IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finance, Maruti Suzuki India, Adani Ports, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finserv, UltraTech Cement and Infosys were among the laggards. In contrast, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, NTPC, Tata Consultancy Services, PowerGrid, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Sun Pharmaceuticals were the gainers.
Equity benchmark indices are facing massive corrections, with the NSE Nifty declining over 14 per cent from its lifetime high hit in September last year due to several negative triggers like stretched valuations, foreign fund exodus, disappointing quarterly earnings and rising global trade tensions dragging markets lower. The BSE benchmark Sensex hit its record peak of 85,978.25 on September 27 last year, and the Nifty also reached a lifetime high of 26,277.35 on the same day.
From the Sensex pack, Nestle India, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, Titan, Infosys, Asian Paints, NTPC, Bajaj Finserv and Sun Pharmaceuticals were among the laggards. State Bank of India, IndusInd Bank, Zomato, Power Grid, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services and Adani Ports were the gainers.
India's stock markets are experiencing a shift in investor sentiment, with a 30 per cent surge in Chinese stocks, prompting investors to move money from domestic markets to China. This reversal of fortunes is a notable change from the past three years, where China's losses benefited India.
'An HAL-private sector tieup is a possibility.'
Tata Steel was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, sliding 8.59 per cent, followed by Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, Adani Ports, IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharmaceutical, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and NTPC, were the major laggards. On the other hand, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, Nestle India, ICICI Bank, ITC, Asian Paints and Axis Bank were among the gainers.
New-age stocks to buy: Most new-age stocks have turned out to be wealth destroyers in stock markets, so far, in calendar year 2025. Shares of Ola Electric Mobility, for instance, have plunged nearly 50 per cent in the first half of CY 2025, while those of Swiggy, PB Fintech, Paytm, and Eternal (Zomato) have crashed between 6 per cent and 25 per cent, ACE Equity data shows.
Foreign investors have withdrawn Rs 22,194 crore from Indian equities this month, driven by expectations of a weak earnings season, a steady rise in the US dollar, and concerns over tariff war during Donald Trump's presidency. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the month of December, data with the depositories showed.
The Indian equity markets have significantly increased in importance within the emerging market (EM) basket of stocks in recent years. Since 2018, India's weighting in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) EM Index - tracked by passive funds with assets of nearly $500 billion - has doubled, while the number of domestic stocks has grown by almost 70 per cent.
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From the Sensex pack, Bajaj Finserv, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, Larsen & Toubro, UltraTech Cement, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, Power Grid, Zomato, State Bank of India, HDFC Bank and Titan were the biggest gainers. Tata Motors tanked over 5.5 per cent after US President Donald Trump announced he would impose 25 per cent tariffs on imported cars. Sun Pharma, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharti Airtel, HCL Tech and Mahindra & Mahindra were also among the laggards.
Post the change in debt fund taxation in March, a lesser-known hybrid fund has emerged as one of the alternatives for fixed-income investors. Equity savings schemes, the smallest hybrid fund category in terms of assets, have raked in around Rs 6,000 crore this financial year (FY24) so far compared to Rs 1,100-crore outflow in FY23. The inflows along with a strong performance led to a 50 per cent surge in assets under management (AUM) to Rs 24,100 crore during April-November, shows data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi).
Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Eternal, Mahindra & Mahindra, HCL Technologies, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tata Consultancy Services and Bajaj Finance were also among the laggards.
Only a limited set of investors should invest directly in corporate bonds.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued their buying spree and poured close to Rs 4,800 crore in the Indian equity markets in the first week of January driven by confidence in the country's robust economic fundamentals. Additionally, they injected Rs 4,000 crore in the debt market during the period under review, data with the depositories showed. With expectations of a prolonged decline in US interest rates in 2024, there is an anticipation that FPIs will likely escalate their purchase, particularly in the initial months of the New Year leading up to the general elections, V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said.
Only experienced investors with a high risk appetite, a grasp of market cycles, and comfort with volatility and timing risk should invest.
However, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, UltraTech Cement, IndusInd Bank, Hindustan Unilever and ICICI Bank were the gainers.
Among Sensex firms, Eternal, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, Adani Ports, NTPC, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints, Axis Bank and Sun Pharma were the major losers. Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle and Maruti were among the gainers.
Among Sensex shares, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, Zomato, Nestle, Bajaj Finserv, Maruti and Titan were the biggest gainers. Sun Pharma, Power Grid, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Asian Paints and Tata Motors were among the laggards.
Without changes to the taxation rules, buybacks are expected to remain scarce.
Trading sentiment in the equity market will largely be driven by domestic corporate quarterly earnings, any update related to US tariffs and foreign fund movements this week, analysts said. Investors would also focus on world market trends, movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee-dollar trend for further cues, experts noted.
From the Sensex pack, Zomato, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Titan, Power Grid, Hindustan Unilever, Tech Mahindra and ITC were among the gainers. On the other hand, Reliance Industries, Nestle India, Tata Motors, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, UltraTech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the laggards.
From the Sensex pack, Zomato jumped over 7 per cent. ICICI Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, Asian Paints, Titan, Kotak Mahindra Bank and State Bank of India were among the gainers. However, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra and Reliance Industries were the laggards.
In a remarkable comeback, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped Rs 1.7 lakh crore into the Indian equity markets in 2023, propelled by confidence in the country's robust economic fundamentals amid a challenging global landscape. The year 2023 has witnessed massive investment by FPIs, thanks to the sharp uptick in inflows of Rs 66,134 crore in December. Going forward, FPI flows are expected to be robust.
The ratio of market capitalisation to gross domestic product (GDP) in India remains elevated despite the recent correction in the equities markets. It was 147.5 per cent on December 3, 56 per cent higher than the 10-year average of 94 per cent. The current ratio is slightly lower than the all-time high ratio of 154 per cent at the end of September this year.
Since October, FPIs have offloaded Indian equities worth Rs 2.1 trillion.
Banks have outperformed the broader market in the past six months and most of the leading lenders have given positive returns to investors compared to a negative return delivered by benchmark indices.
From the Sensex pack, IndusInd Bank, Infosys, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, Zomato, Hindustan Unilever, Power Grid, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement, Adani Ports, and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards. On the other hand, Sun Pharmaceuticals, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, HCL Technologies, Maruti Suzuki India, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Titan were the gainers.
From the Sensex pack, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Adani Ports, ICICI Bank, Zomato and UltraTech Cement were among the biggest gainers. However, ITC, Nestle, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards.
Hindenburg Research, the forensic financial firm that challenged the Adani Group, took its name from the infamous airship that burst into flames upon arriving in New Jersey in 1937. And the counter to its damning report against the conglomerate was dubbed 'Operation Zeppelin,' named after the German dirigible airships used for reconnaissance and bombing during the First World War.
In a move that could have implications for market share dynamics, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has permitted the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the BSE to alter the days for settlement of equity derivatives contracts.
From the Sensex pack, Tata Steel, Zomato, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement, IndusInd Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Adani Ports, NTPC, State Bank of India and Reliance Industries were among the major gainers. On the other hand, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, ITC, Infosys, Sun Pharma, Maruti, HCL Tech, and Nestle were among the laggards.
From the 30 Sensex companies, IndusInd Bank, Zomato, Larsen & Toubro, Titan, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Reliance Industries, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tech Mahindra and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards. On the other hand, Power Grid, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Nestle India, Asian Paints, ITC, Sun Pharmaceuticals and ICICI Bank were the gainers.
As India faces slowing economic growth, HSBC Global Research has downgraded the Indian stock market outlook from "overweight" to "neutral". In a report, the global financial services firm said profits at India Inc appeared to have softened while valuations are elevated. After annualized growth of 25 per cent in recent years, profits appear to have softened while valuations are elevated at 23x forward earnings.
From the Sensex pack, Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys fell over 2 per cent each. Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma, Power Grid, Bajaj Finserv, HCL Tech, Mahindra & Mahindra, and Tech Mahindra were also among the laggards. Among the gainers, Zomato jumped nearly 5 per cent. Larsen & Toubro, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank were also among the gainers.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continued unabated, as they withdrew over Rs 7,300 crore (about $840 million) in the first week of this month due to global trade tensions, with the US imposing tariffs on countries such as Canada, Mexico, and China. This came following an outflow of Rs 78,027 crore in the entire January. Before that, they invested Rs 15,446 crore in December, data with the depositories showed.
The Adani Group plans to invest a record $15-20 billion across businesses over the next five years to chart out the next phase of growth, chairman Gautam Adani said on Tuesday as he touted the conglomerate's strong balance sheet and robust business to shrug off relentless scrutiny it faces. Record earnings from the businesses ranging from seaports to airports, renewable energy parks to data centres, cement to gas and electricity has built India's largest infrastructure group that not only exists just to serve the markets but to serve the nation's destiny, he said.
'Despite the current uncertainties, the long-term outlook remains constructive due to strong fundamentals, government initiatives, and a stable banking sector.'
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